Interview with Basildon Peta on the Zimbabwean Elections on March 29th, 2008
What are possible outcomes of the upcoming presidential elections in Zimbabwe?
Basildon Peta: If the elections are going to be free and fair, Mr. Tsvangirai is going to win, there is no doubt about that. But you can see that Mr. Mugabe has already started his manoeuvring to steal the election. The Zimbabwe Election Support Network has issued a very worrying report. There are going to be few polling stations in the urban opposition strongholds.
One analyst has calculated that in order for a significant percentage of urban people to cast their ballot, each and everybody will only have about 20 seconds. Now how do you vote in 20 seconds? You will have the ballot paper with all the options for the local elections, for parliament, for senate, for president. It’s just impossible. In the 2002 presidential elections there were also very few polling stations in the urban centres, with devastating consequences for the opposition. Many city dwellers were unable to cast their ballot. And Mr. Mugabe won, by how much? – A mere 400,000 votes. I think that’s what he wants again. A narrow margin but still a win. That’s my great fear.
Is there reliable information on the actual number of polling stations?
On election day this is one of the most important issues. You might have all of the good things around the elections but if people cannot cast their ballot, it is as good as having no election at all.
A second major concern is the recent amendment to the electoral regulations allowing police officers to ‘help’ so-called incapacitated or physically challenged voters in polling booths. Remember: As a result of negotiations brokered by President Mbeki, there had been an agreement to take the security forces out of the electoral process. There was an earlier amendment to electoral legislation ensuring that police officers would be kept at least 100 metres away from polling booths. Now they will be allowed in the polling booths to ‘assist’ voters. And we all know the position of these security people, they have rigged elections before. This explains why the opposition and civil society are outraged.
We have seen other problems: The opposition’s access to the media has been much restricted. I am told there has been an improvement just now, but an improvement a couple of days before the election doesn’t help. There should have been access to the media for everyone at least three, four, or five months before the elections. That was not the case. The state controlled media still support Mugabe and demonise the opposition.
What role does food aid play?
Food aid still plays a role. We know that government food aid has always been manipulated to exclude opposition supporters. The UN, the WFP etc. don’t have the capacity, the monitoring mechanisms to ensure that food eventually reaches all its intended recipients. They work through communities. These local structures are controlled by the chiefs that are often part of the ZANU-PF patronage system. This makes the international food aid programmes vulnerable to manipulation.
Has the opposition been able to campaign? How would you assess the level of violence?
The situation has been better than in previous elections. Yes, there have been a few problems and isolated incidents, but despite the opposition’s complaints, my impression is that compared to previous elections there has been a marked reduction in violence. Opposition and civil society have compiled a lot of information on incidents which they say are happening around the country. But so far it has been better than in previous elections when Morgan Tsvangirai’s driver and personal aide were killed in their vehicle while on the way to pick him up. Nowadays I have not heard of significant numbers of incidents.
What do you expect from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) observers?
I am sure the verdicts of the SADC observer mission, the African Union (AU) observer mission, of all the observers ZANU-PF allowed in the country, are already clear. They will say the elections was free and fair. The SADC observer mission has already indicated that they are happy with the electoral format. They have ignored most of the problems at hand.
Let me say though that the SADC Parliamentary Forum has been more useful in terms of observing elections. In the past they have reported on the situation as they saw it – which is why they were not allowed in this time. Remember, Mr. Mugabe has said he will invite only observers from ‘friendly’ countries and from ‘democracies’ like China, Libya, Cuba, and Russia. Their verdict is going to be of no consequence in terms of judging the realities the ground.
When do you expect the official results?
Parliamentary election results should be available on Sunday. There is still controversy around the presidential ballot. The Electoral Supervisory Commission wants it counted at the so-called ‘command centre’. Mr. Tsvangirai has fiercely insisted that the presidential ballot must be counted at the polling stations. It is very clear that the reason behind wanting to count at a central place is to manipulate.
What is the situation within the ZANU-PF?
The significance of Simba Makoni’s break-away is that it confirms what we have known all along – that there are serious problems within ZANU-PF. If Mugabe wins the elections, ZANU-PF will keep on moving toward a split. I had a discussion recently with a senior ZANU-PF figure who said: “We are tired of the old man”. I think there is recognition in ZANU-PF that for things to change, Mugabe has to go. The problem is that there is no unanimity or strategy. Some support Simba Makoni but, for obvious reasons, do not come out in the open. Others support Makoni but think that breaking away was the wrong step. They would have wanted to work out something from within ZANU-PF.
If Mugabe stays in power for the time being, I don’t think the next months and years will be easy for him. Pressure from within his party will keep on mounting. Even the cronies who have made a fortune with his support, and those who stand to benefit from the bizarre laws to nationalise the private sector realise that their assets are worthless if they don’t get a return on them. If the economy continues to decline, those assets will remain worthless. And they know there will be no change or improvement in the economy as long as the old man stays in power. So pressure will mount.
Analysts have argued that Mugabe has always had significant support from the military and intelligence circles.
Yes it is true that he has relied on the military to stay in power but I don’t think he still has the iron grip on the army the way he used to. The situation is changing. We have even seen prominent former army officers going over to Makoni. It is an open secret that [ZANU-PF politburo member and retired Army Chief Solomon] Mujuru supports Makoni. Were it not for his wife [Joice Mujuru], who is deputy president of Zimbabwe, I am pretty certain that Mujuru would probably have gone public. There certainly are splits in the army. I don’t think Simba Makoni would have broken away from ZANU-PF without support from the security forces.
There is a school of thought that says: Because of Makoni’s significant level of support from the security forces, this time they are not going to allow rigging to take place. This could mean a realistic chance for the opposition. I don’t entirely agree but it is certainly possible that rigging will not be as thorough as it has been in the past. In terms of intelligence, some say that the head of the CIO [Central Intelligence Organisation], Happyton Bonyongwe, is a supporter of Makoni. He has denied it but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was.
In a nutshell, I don’t think Mugabe has the same level of support from the security establishment as before. Whether the level of support he still enjoys is enough to keep him in power after he steals this election is a very interesting question.
Why did Simba Makoni come out so late?
He says he had hoped there could be changes from within ZANU-PF, especially during the December 2007 congress. That did not happen. He also says that after Mugabe railroaded his nomination as the presidential candidate in December, there were still plans and manoeuvres within ZANU-PF to block him. After subsequent politburo meetings, Makoni went on holiday to Malaysia. When he came back there were no more efforts to block Mugabe. When Makoni saw that, he decided to break away. That was in January / February. I don’t quite believe it, yet it may be true.
If Makoni had broken away earlier, it would have made his life much easier. Now the time factor is really going to hurt him in the election. There are various parts of the country which he hasn’t visited. Mugabe is flying around the country in helicopters. Makoni doesn’t have that mobility. He has to drive – and remember the fuel situation in the country. So his mobility is limited and that is going to hurt him.
Everyone keeps saying there is no chance Makoni will win. What is his strategy?
His plan is to mould a political party after the elections that will then become the main opposition party. Remember, there are people within ZANU-PF who want change but who will not work with Tsvangirai. Makoni would have the support of large parts of the military and many others in the establishment.
Also, a review of the constitution has to take place after the elections. One main reason why the SADC mediations fell apart is that there was no agreement on a new constitution. Hence, there is going to be debate on a new constitution after the elections. Makoni’s camp believes that in a new constitution there will be some kind of provision for early elections. And by that time there will be this new political party.
Will Makoni and Tsvangirai ever work together?
Makoni will never be allowed back into ZANU-PF. Eventually they will have to work on some deal with the other opposition party. When there is a presidential run-off and Makoni is in no good position, I think he will naturally support Tsvangirai. I think they will have to stick together and work out some deal eventually.
How does the 2005 split affect the MDC? Why weren’t the two factions able to reunite?
The split in 2005 had to do with the senate elections. When Mugabe reintroduced the senate in 2005, it was to accommodate his cronies who had lost their parliamentary seats. When Tsvangirai refused to take part there were others within the MDC who wanted to use this election to fight ZANU-PF. The disagreement was handled so poorly that it ultimately led to the split.
In the run-up to the 2008 elections it was mainly people in the Tsvangirai camp who rejected a reunification. There was some selfishness involved. Some officials would have had to make way for officials from the other faction and they didn’t want that – so the deal collapsed.
Many people write off the Mutambara faction – that is now backing Makoni. I wouldn’t write it off because they still have support in Matabeleland and Midlands and they are still campaigning for parliamentary seats in those provinces.
What is Mutambara’s rationale in supporting Simba Makoni?
Mutambara is also preparing for the future. He knows he will loose this election. I think what he would prefer is for Morgan Tsvangirai and maybe even for Simba Makoni to loose. Mutambara hopes to become the presidential candidate of a post-Tsvangirai MDC. If Makoni won, it would also be okay for Mutambara because he would become a significant player in the Makoni faction, maybe even vice-president.
However, I think he knows that Makoni cannot win the election and is therefore preparing for the future. Mutambara is a very intelligent man. He doesn’t want to be seen as a looser. He will wait for his opportunity.
Morgan Tsvangirai is running again. If he looses again, what will it mean for his political career?
I think if he looses this time around his future is in doubt. It means he will never have a realistic opportunity to stand for president again. Simba will still have a second chance. Morgan will have lost four times. It is going to be tragic for him. There have been calls for leadership renewal within his faction because of the way he has handled some issues. Tsvangirai still enjoys a lot of respect among the general public but there are people within his party who are not happy with his leadership style. So if he looses, it is going to bolster those voices within his party. Even his supporters will say, maybe it is time to try something else.
Is there a lot of denial going on because truly Tsvangirai cannot think he is going to win?
Rigging will always take place under Mugabe. Mugabe says he will never, ever allow Tsvangirai to win and I am sure he means it. That’s the reality in Zimbabwe. And to a certain extent you are right when you say there is denial. When you are a politician you have to be hopeful. There is no doubt that if elections were free and fair, Mr. Tsvangirai would win. I won’t be surprised, if they ‘change’ the results at the last minute.
The issue boils down to the post-election strategy? The moment you say you will go into the streets, that’s treason. Tsvangirai says ‘if the vote is stolen, people must be ready to defend their vote’. That is open to all kinds of interpretations. My own interpretation is that if he loses this time, he will go into the street – and it will be violent. Whether that violence can be sustained is another question because factions of the army are loyal to Mr. Mugabe. Those will come down heavy on the people.
This is where organisations such as the SADC should come in. Unfortunately the SADC is useless. So we won’t expect any significant regional intervention in the interest of democracy.
But there are some SADC countries that have been critical of the regime in the past?
Those voices have been isolated. The problem with the SADC is that most of them have former liberation movements in government, and they protect each other. The ANCs, ZANU-PFs, SWAPOs, etc., they have a lot in common. They will not willingly give room to new parties. It’s like a common strategy.
Maybe the hope for a change will come with Jacob Zuma [if he becomes President of South Africa]. There are people who believe that some of Zuma’s allies like Cosatu [Congress of South Africa’s Trade Unions] are going to push him to change tactic on Zimbabwe. Whether he will listen is another story.
What meaningful role could the international community / the EU play?
The international community, the EU should continue to do what they have been doing: Isolate the regime, help the people of Zimbabwe in humanitarian terms, and help civil society in pushing for change and preparing for a post-Mugabe situation. And to try to engage the SADC, although it is difficult but put more pressure on the SADC. The EU should remind the SADC that you have to practice what you preach.
So the role of EU, the international community is to keep on insisting that African regional organisations ought to be accountable to the standards they have set for themselves. And a carrot and stick approach in that regard would be helpful.
If Mugabe steals the elections, do you see the potential of mass uprisings – given that most Zimbabweans have to work very hard just in order to survive?
This is a point that has been repeatedly made. You cannot sustain a revolution on an empty stomach. But a hungry man is also an angry man. And I think that if Mugabe steals the elections, many Zimbabweans might think the only route left is a mass revolt.
Should that happen there would be problems in terms of sustainability and lack of organisation by the opposition. Unfortunately the Zimbabwean opposition has not learned from their past mistakes. They tend to become too hopeful of victory and then loose sight of Mugabe’s determination.
But the reality is also that the people of Zimbabwe have suffered a lot, they cannot take it any more. People have had enough and want to see this man defeated.
If there is an uprising, what will it achieve?
That is difficult to say. Mr. Mugabe has been tough and resilient over the past 25 years. I think if it is sustained it will be an incentive for the SADC to intervene. Because if there are refugees pouring across the border into South Africa, Zambia, Botswana, etc., if it becomes a major humanitarian crisis, I think that will force the SADC to intervene. It might not be an intervention that will result in Mugabe’s complete demise but something that will force him to share power with the opposition.
Thabo Mbeki has been speaking to Makoni and Tsvangirai and he is urging them, regardless of the result, to consider a government of national unity. If that were possible, it might be the best solution for Zimbabwe. From Mbeki’s position you can tell that he expects trouble after the elections.
How can events like those in Kenya be prevented? How likely is it that things will get really bad – also in terms of ethnic tensions?
Within Zimbabwe the ethnic dimensions are different. Amongst the tribes, yes there are problems but there is unity towards a common end. The Ndebele never wanted Mugabe because of the Matabeleland massacre, the Shona don’t want him anymore because they are suffering. In African countries you can probably never completely eliminate some level of ethnic tensions. Other than in Kenya, though, ethnic tensions would not play into the leaders, into Mugabe’s hands.
25th March 2008