By Kate Lefko-Everett
Since the beginning of this year, municipal by-elections have been held in 72 wards across the country.
In the current highly-charged political environment, by-elections are often used – wrongly – as the basis for predictions and crystal ball-gazing about the outcome of national elections next week.
Municipal by-election results reflect complex local dynamics, political personalities, targeted in-ward canvassing, and concerns over service delivery, among other issues. As such, they are not accurate indicators of the levels of the voter turnout or political party support that South Africa is likely to see at the polls on April 22nd.
These limitations considered, however, looking at cumulative by-election results can provide something of a barometer for public opinion and political preferences, albeit localised.
In total, 160,450 voters have participated in by-elections this year: far more than numbers of respondents in any of the recently-released opinion polls. Steven Friedman of the Centre for the Study of Democracy has observed that by-election results may be, in some respects, “more reliable” than opinion polls.
Overall, as typical of municipal by-elections, voter turnout has been relatively low at around 43% on average.
By-elections have been held in all nine provinces this year, but interestingly, most have been held in the politically-contested provinces of the Northern Cape (21) and the Eastern Cape (15).
For the most part, the by-elections ushered in relatively few political changes at local leadership level, with party control changing in only 9 wards. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) lost two Northern Cape wards to the Congress of the People (COPE) – the only wards won by the emergent opposition party thus far – but in both, the existing ward councillor had defected from the ruling party, and was re-elected to the same position on a COPE platform.
The ANC also lost one ward each to the Democratic Alliance (DA), Independent Democrats (ID) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP). However, it also gained three wards in KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape: two previously lead by the IFP, and one by the Adelaide Resident’s Association.
The ANC has also maintained a comfortable majority across by-elections overall, winning about 58% of cumulative votes. However, it is also the only party that has contested in every single by-election this year.
COPE is a new entrant in the political game, and a somewhat unexpected one. COPE’s ability to compete against the ANC – the previous political home of many of its members – is the story everyone is waiting to hear next week.
Importantly, COPE contested in far more wards than any other opposition party, signifying its intent – and possibly potential – to emerge as a national movement. Out of the 41 wards where COPE candidates were in the running, the party won two, and placed second in 34. In wards where COPE contested, the new party won 18.4% of votes overall: a formidable second to the ANC’s 56.9%.
It is interesting to note that the DA only contested four of these 41 wards, winning 3 and displacing COPE as runner-up in the fourth: attesting to the strong potential competition between the two parties for the opposition vote.
The ANC’s campaign trail towards national elections next month has often been traversed in the Eastern Cape: the party’s coveted popular support base and birthplace of many of its leaders. In the 2004 provincial elections, the ANC received 79.27% of the Eastern Cape vote, followed by the United Democratic Movement (UDM) at 9.23% and the DA at 7.34%.
Fifteen by-elections have been held in Eastern Cape wards this year, most located in Nelson Mandela Bay Metro. Turnout in these by-elections was higher than any other province at 52.12%: although still far lower than turnout at the 2004 provincial election, at 79.31%.
The ANC, which remains likely to retain control of the province after next week’s elections, won all of the by-elections and claimed 67.21% of total votes across these wards.
However, with the perception of persistent support for former President Thabo Mbeki, COPE has also capitalised on political discontent in the province, and tallied fairly well in its by-election polls. The emergent opposition won no less than 11% of the vote in any Eastern Cape by-election, and between 25% and 30% in five wards. COPE was placed second to the ANC in 14 of the 15 wards, losing this position only in Nelson Mandela Bay Ward 52, where the DA captured 34.30%.
Cumulatively, these by-election results suggest that while support for the ruling ANC remains strong, there is also significant public appetite for the opposition.
Previous New National Party (NNP) stronghold and site of ascension for both DA and ID support in the 2004 elections, the Northern Cape has in the past proved difficult political terrain for the ANC. As in the Eastern Cape, COPE appears set to take up some opposition support in the province, with a number of high-profile ANC members recently defecting to the party, including a provincial cabinet member, as well as a former adviser to Premier Dipuo Peters.
Voter turnout in Northern Cape by-elections was similarly high at 51.35%: an indication that residents of the province are following, and relatively actively participating in current politics. The ANC – maintaining a marginal majority of the cumulative votes – has taken in 55.39%.
As a new party, COPE again fared well, winning more than 20% of the vote in 18 of 21 Northern Cape by-elections, and more than 40% in three of these wards. Results also demonstrated support for the DA and ID: both parties that are also likely to draw some support from former NNP voters.
By-elections cannot tell us what the results of next week’s national elections will be. However, they do foreshadow the difficultly the ANC will likely face in keeping its overall two-thirds majority, particularly given levels of opposition support in the Northern Cape and Eastern Cape, as well as traditionally in the Western Cape.
Smaller opposition parties may also experience a proverbial “run for their money” in these regions, and must work to ensure that gains made in the 2004 elections are not eroded by COPE’s rapid ascendancy.
At the same time, while COPE has indicated that the party is “thrilled” with by-election results, concentrated support in these provinces – while important – will not necessarily translate into comparable impact at the national level.
Further, COPE has not contested in any KwaZulu-Natal by-elections, and appears to have made limited inroads into provinces such as the Free State and Mpumalanga.
If COPE is to assume a larger role on the national political stage, its presence must also spread to include work in other provinces traditionally less accessible to opposition parties.
Failing this, COPE will risk sequestering itself in regions with strong opposition identification - as other smaller parties have - rather than becoming a national movement.
Kate Lefko-Everett is a Researcher at IDASA. She previously worked for the Southern African Migration Project, and is now based in the Political Information and Monitoring Services (PIMS) programme. She has a Bachelor’s degree in Urban Studies from Vassar College in New York, and a Masters degree in Social Research Methods from Trinity College in Dublin. Her current work focuses on budget analysis, social security, and the public service.