An increasingly unlikely, but still possible scenario is that Mugabe will rig the elections after all. This could lead to post-election violence or it could lead to the people turning back to their usual day to day struggles for survival – business as usual. A second scenario is that the vote against Mugabe was simply so overwhelming that any attempt to rig the elections will either fail or be too evident. In this case, Mugabe might still call for a run off while trying to devise new and even more sophisticated methods of rigging.
In the event of such a run-off, there are two underlying principles that will be highly critical, namely: Unity and Selflessness. All oppositional forces, from the opposition parties, civil society, trade and students unions, women and youth organisations, general workers, business community, to the peasantry and Zimbabweans in general must rally behind the candidate running against Mugabe. The last scenario would be an outright majority for an opposition candidate, i.e. over 50% of the vote. This would simplify the setting up of a government and turn the focus on reconstruction initiatives.
Role of regional and international organs
What is obvious is that the primary responsibility to mediate in the Zimbabwean stalemate lies with the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The obvious concern is their failure over the years to ensure compliance with their own conventions and declarations. The second problem is their inclination to support incumbents even when they are a disaster. Linked to this is the failure to move away from the rhetoric of the liberation struggles. African countries have performed poorly partly because some of our African leaders have lived on their past victories in liberating their countries and forgot to work towards concrete solutions for their societies. Instead they tend to blame everything on white colonialists and imperialists (who were and sometimes still are responsible for some of the problems).
The SADC needs to strengthen its own democratic mechanisms and ensure compliance. The failure by SADC Observers to arrive in Zimbabwe three weeks prior to the elections as stipulated by the SADC guidelines is an example of how much work still needs to be done.
An other example: A few months ago, Morgan Tsvangirai was robbed in South Africa. It turned out that the South African government had not officially received him, nor granted him official security.
Domestically, too, opposition officials should be given state security as much as they should receive funding from their governments. These are clear examples of the grey areas which the SADC should work to improve if it is to gain credibility as a regional body that can hold the region together in peace and progress. The same applies for the African Union (AU). What is important now is for these two bodies (SADC and AU) to strive to prevent bloodshed in Zimbabwe and to help set up a transitional authority. Zimbabwe is going through a period of transition now – or it will within the next year or two.
As regards the European Union (EU), the first question is as to its objectives and mandate in trying to resolve the crisis in Zimbabwe. The link is that the British have a responsibility in Zimbabwe going back to colonial times. I see a role for the British at the highest level of international lobbying and advocacy, in terms of supporting a strong civil society in Zimbabwe, and putting pressure on the EU, SADC, South Africa to keep the ills of the Zimbabwean government in the international spotlight. Apart from these rather abstract roles, I don’t see how the EU can concretely fit in now.
In a post-transition Zimbabwe the EU should give financial and material assistance to reconstruction. This cannot be done under the current order – with a government that is accountable only to itself and that will use all resources to prolong its stay in power. The last crucial organ is the United Nations which should be active through its Human Rights Council and which has a clear role to play in the post-transition phase.
If Mugabe goes, it will be not only be an opportunity for international actors to revisit their Zimbabwe strategies. It will also be an opportunity for Zimbabweans to own the transformation process – through extensive consultation and involvement of a strong civil society.
Conclusion
Any attempt by Mugabe to stay in power illegally must be met by spirited resistance. We need strategies to make sure that it will be difficult for Mugabe to carry on as before and impossible for the international organs (especially the SADC and AU) to close the case and say ‘we are done’. It cannot and should not be business as usual.
Zimbabweans will have to be brave, will have to be active in of each and every corner of their country. The army and police officers must defy a handful of Mugabe cronies purporting to lead the national forces by laying down their arms and refusing to shoot.
Mugabe must be stopped from going on to rule the country illegally. And to those within ZANU-PF, who are contemplating to join the opposition: Please do so before it is too late. There will be no illegal government in Zimbabwe after these elections.
Promise Mkwananzi
University of Zimbabwe
Promise Mkwananzi is a former president of the Zimbabwe National Student Union (ZINASU)