Since Sunday election officials have been arrested. What is the background for that?
The arrest of the officials is part of an intimidation campaign and is also meant to create the impression that the election results were rigged by the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission (ZEC).
Is it possible that the elections were rigged in Tsvangirai’s favour?
No. It’s ridiculous, because Zanu-PF was more represented than any other party in these elections; in the sense that some polling stations did not have observers; in the sense that election officers were handpicked by the ZEC, which, in turn, was handpicked by the ruling party.
Who were the election officials?
The election officials were members of the civil service, for instance, people who work for the post office, which while it is a body autonomous from the state, is still politicised. These are institutions in which there is limitation to political freedom. You have to watch what you say all the time because the top people who work there are Zanu-PF people. So if you work there, you have to toe the line. To arrest these people, is just to try create the impression that the elections were rigged and to send a clear message to other election officials in the case of a run-off.
Are Zimbabweans buying it? Are they starting to believe that the elections were rigged in Tsvangirai’s favour?
No. Zimbabweans are not outspoken people, but if you speak to them they will tell you that these accusations are not true. It’s all part of a misinformation campaign. For instance, the Herald reported today that Tsvangirai has begged Zanu-PF for a vice-president position. There is no way that this can be true. This is all part of a campaign meant to distort things, to confuse the nation, to buy time. Spreading stories like these, arresting election officers, arresting foreign journalists – it’s part of an intimidation and confusion campaign, an attempt to scare people away.
Is it part of Mugabe’s strategy to reverse the results of the parliamentary elections?
There is not much he can do about the results of the parliamentary elections. To start with, the recount he wants is not legal. There are certain regulations about holding recounts and this case does not meet them. I’m not sure how this aspect will play out, but he can’t reverse everything. In any case, the key prize is the president’s seat. The president can still control the parliament through the senate, to which he is entitled to appoint 32 representatives, more than 50% of the representatives. They have to approve everything that goes through parliament, so he can control the assembly through them.
How do Zimbabweans feel about the arrest, about the failure to release results, about the court-case lodged by the MDC?
People are extremely frustrated, worried, angry. And Zimbabwe is not a free society, where one can express this, so everything is bottled up. People have no means of expressing their anger, they can’t. On foreign stations you hear Zimbabweans saying things that they would never dare to say on their own media, in their own country. It’s not like in other places where one can demonstrate or use the media; it all must be bottled up. And Mugabe is just waiting for a protest, for a show of frustration, so he can declare a state of emergency and rule by force. On the ground things are very tense. Life in Zimbabwe is getting harder and harder. Inflation is going up, basic goods like bread are becoming more expensive, and there is no solution in sight. Problems are worsening by the day. People were hoping that the elections would bring some solutions.
Is there a potential for violence?
It’s hard to predict, but you never know. Right now people are giving the court case a chance, they are hoping that maybe something will come out of that. Mugabe is trying to push people to the edge – protests will be an excuse to declare a state of emergency, so the MDC is trying to prevent its members from going out into the streets. That is the context for the court case; that is why Tsvangirai is now out of Zimbabwe, meeting with [ANC president] Jacob Zuma, [South African president] Thabo Mbeki, and also the African Union (AU).
What do you make of the MDC’s court case? Is it possible for a judge to take an independent decision at this point?
The court case is basically a result of the MDC being driven to desperation. How long will it take? How long before they hear the arguments and counter-arguments? How long before they finalise things? The MDC can’t allow protests right now, but at the same time, taking the route through the courts is just giving Mugabe time.
With regards to the independence of the judiciary, it’s difficult to say. It depends a lot on the individual judge. There are some which are willing to stand up for what they feel is right and just; there are others who are Zanu-PF apologists. The judge who has taken over this case, High Court Judge Tendai Uchena, has not been much involved in politics, so it’s hard to say. My guess is that this will end up in the Supreme Court, with Chief Justice Godfrey Chidyausiku, and he’s Zanu-PF. All in all, it is difficult to imagine that political influence will not come to bear on this case.
What do you make of Jacob Zuma’s statement calling for the presidential vote to be announced?
We need something like that. Mbeki was too quiet, and this was quite frustrating for those of us on the other side. Tsvangirai has gone to Zuma because he thought that perhaps Zuma as a stronger character would have a different approach to Zimbabwe than Mbeki – perhaps because he thinks that the differences between the ANC and Mbeki can be exploited. The opposition has been driven to desperation; they are trying all avenues. What will happen when all these avenues are exhausted – your guess is as good as mine.
With change so close on the horizon, will Zimbabweans allow Zanu-PF to intimidate them in the run-off?
People have reached the stage that if they go to the polling stations, they will not be intimidated into voting for Mugabe. The problem is that Mugabe will instill so much fear in people so that they will be too scared to go the polling stations.
Why do people still support Mugabe? What could he have possibly said in that politburo meeting Friday to sideline those Zanu-PF guys who know it is time for change?
There are people around Mugabe who are benefiting. It’s in their interest that he will stay. They are few, but they are benefiting. This is their last chance to loot the country, to build up their wealth. And they are stronger than those who realise that change is inevitable. It’s the same in the army. Most of the junior officers are disgruntled, they’re unhappy, but because their bosses are telling them to stick by Mugabe they do. There is too much of a culture of fear, of impotence, for them to do something. The war veterans are also split, but it’s not clear which faction has more support. Some believe Mugabe must go, some are diehards. But it can’t go on like this for much longer; it must be the beginning of the end.
For security reasons the interviewee, who reports from inside Zimbabwe, prefers to remain anonymous.