October 2024 Household Affordability Index and Key Data

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The October 2024 Household Affordability Index, which tracks the prices of 44 basic foods from 47 supermarkets and 32 butcheries, in Johannesburg (Soweto, Alexandra, Tembisa and Hillbrow), Durban (KwaMashu, Umlazi, Isipingo, Durban CBD, Hammarsdale and Pinetown), Cape Town (Khayelitsha, Gugulethu, Philippi, Langa, Delft and Dunoon), Pietermaritzburg, Mtubatuba (in Northern KwaZulu-Natal), and Springbok (in the Northern Cape), shows that:

• In October 2024: The average cost of the Household Food Basket is R5 348,65.
• Month-on-month: The average cost of the Household Food Basket increased by R92,97 (1,8%), from R5 255,68 in September 2024 to R5 348,65 in October 2024.
• Year-on-year:  The average cost of the Household Food Basket increased by R51,07 (1,0%), from R5 297,58 in October 2023 to R5 348,65 in October 2024.

Between May 2024 and August 2024, we saw a slight decrease in the overall cost of the basket but in September we again saw an upwards trajectory in the price of the basket, and this has continued in October.  This upward trend is taking place as we see petrol and diesel prices decline, stability of electricity supply, interest rates and CPI headline inflation trending downwards.  In such a context we would expect that food prices should have continued its lower trajectory and continued on a downward trend.

On page 4 we include a graphic that shows food price movements on the average household food basket over the past 3 years, - for 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024.  The graphic, in most cases show how a crisis viz. bird flu (eggs and chicken), the war in the Ukraine (sunflower oil), embargos on rice, amongst others, and just general time-bound and lesser challenges, often once resolved, do not result in food prices stabilizing at levels reasonably close enough to pre-crisis prices.  The graphic, providing a picture of how South African foods have increased over the past three years, asks questions of food producers and retailers. 

South Africans are net buyers of food and food affordability largely determines household food security.   It is therefore incumbent on the food producers and retailers to explain why the prices of certain foods continue to increase, what margins they are working with, and what pressures they encounter. This is necessary to assure consumers that the price they pay reflect true costs of food and that the food and retailer sectors are not unfairly increasing prices, nor holding back or constraining legitimate price drops.  

The cost of the core foods still too expensive relative to low wages and social grants.

The core foods, or foods which women tell us they prioritise and buy first, remain expensive.  These foods ensure that families do not go hungry whilst also being the primary basis for meals (the starches of maize meal, rice, flour, samp, potatoes, bread), and inputs so that meals can be cooked (e.g. oil), and palatable (e.g. salt, onions, stock cubes, sugar).  These 17 foods cost R2 908,76 in October 2024, and increased by R47,92 (1,7%) over the past month. Of the 17 foods, 14 increased in price over the past month. In relation to the value of social grants and minimum wages, families struggle even to afford these basic foods, and basic hygiene products.  For a healthy populace, it is important that the cost of these foods is affordable, as this may allow women to include more nutritious foods into their family baskets viz. eggs, maas, vegetables and fruits, and meat.  (See page 3 of October 2024, Household Affordability Index).

Food pricing trends in October 2024.

In October 33 foods increased in price, and 11 foods decreased in price.

Foods in the basket which increased in price in October 2024 by 5% or more, include:  potatoes (19%, or R22,01 on a 10kg pocket), soup (11%), carrots (6%), spinach (9%), cremora (6%), bananas (8%), and oranges (23%).

Foods in the basket which increased in price in October 2024 by 2% or more, include:  rice (3%), salt (3%), frozen chicken portions (3%), tea (2%), eggs (3%), beef liver (2%), wors (3%), beef tripe (3%), fish (4%), butternut (3%), cabbage (4%), apples (4%), polony (2%), and apricot jam (3%).

Foods in the basket which decreased in price in October 2024, by 5% or more, include:  chicken feet (-7%).

Foods in the basket which decreased in price in October 2024, by 2% or more, include: chicken livers (-3%), tomatoes (-3%), green pepper (-2%), peanut butter (-4%), and brown bread (-2%).

See page 2 of October 2024, Household Affordability Index.

Statistics South Africa’s latest Consumer Price Index.

Statistics South Africa’s latest Consumer Price Index for August 20241 shows that Headline inflation was 4,4%, and for the lowest expenditure quintiles 1-3 it is 5,7%, 5,2%, and 4,7% respectively.  CPI Food inflation was 4,1% (for CPI Food & NAB it was 4,7%, we use the figure excluding non-alcoholic beverages).  STATS SA’s Producer Price Index for August 20242 shows agriculture was 7,3%. 

Inflation on the food baskets per area tracked.

In October 2024, food baskets increased marginally in Joburg and Durban, and substantially in Cape Town and Springbok.  The Maritzburg and Mtubatuba food baskets decreased marginally.  (See pages 10-15 for area specific data, in the October 2024, Household Affordability Index).

The Joburg basket increased by R4,22 (0,1%) month-on-month, and decreased by R22,22 (-0,4%) year-on-year, to R5 486,87 in October 2024.

The Durban basket increased by R30,68 (0,6%) month-on-month, and increased by R79,80 (1,5%) year-on-year, to R5 257,42 in October 2024.

The Cape Town basket increased by R249,89 (5,0%) month-on-month, and increased by R27,41 (0,5%) year-on-year, to R5 290,07 in October 2024.

The Springbok basket increased by R457,32 (8,3%) month-on-month, and increased by R302,40 (5,4%) year-on-year, to R5 938,01 in October 2024.

The Maritzburg basket decreased by R12,58 (-0,3%) month-on-month, and increased by R52,85 (1,1%) year-on-year, to R5 002,65 in October 2024.

The Mtubatuba basket decreased by R14,49 (-0,3%) month-on-month, and decreased by R86,31 (-1,6%) year-on-year, to R5 387,56 in October 2024. 

Women and children

In October 2024, the average cost to feed a child a basic nutritious diet was R956,40.  Over the past month, the average cost to feed a child a basic nutritious diet increased by R14,88 or 1,6%.  Year-on-year, the average cost to feed a child a basic nutritious diet increased by R23,67 or 2,5% (See page 6 of October 2024, Household Affordability Index).

In October 2024, the Child Support Grant of R530 is 33% below the Food Poverty Line of R796, and 45% below the average cost to feed a child a basic nutritious diet (R956,40).

Workers

The National Minimum Wage is R27,58 an hour and R220,64 for an 8-hour day. In October 2024, with 23 working days, the maximum National Minimum Wage for a General Worker is R5 074,72.  Workers work to support their families.  The wage workers earn is not just to sustain themselves alone, it is used to support the entire family. For Black South African workers, one wage typically must support 4,1 people.  Dispersed in a worker’s family of 4 persons, the NMW, is R1 268,68 per person – this is below the upper-bound poverty line of R1 634 per person per month.

The October 2024 average cost of a basic nutritional food basket for a family of four persons is R3 750,75 (See page 6 of October 2024, Household Affordability Index).

On our calculations, using Pietermaritzburg-based figures for electricity and transport, and the average figure for a minimum nutritional basket of food for a family of four, puts electricity, and transport, taking up 56,8% of a worker’s wage (R2 882,97/R5 074,72).  Food is bought after monies for transport and electricity have been paid for or set aside (leaving R2 191,75 – for food and everything else), and so in October 2024, PMBEJD calculates that workers’ families will underspend on food by a minimum of 41,6% (having R2 191,75 left over after transport and electricity, and with food costing R3 750,75). In this scenario there is no possibility of a worker being able to afford enough nutritious food for her family.  If the entire R2 191,75 all went to buy food, then for a family of 4 persons, it would provide R547,94 per person per month.  This is below the food poverty line of R796 (See page 8 of October 2024, Household Affordability Index).

Household domestic and personal hygiene products

The October 2024 Household Domestic & Personal Hygiene Index increased by R5,62 (0,6%) month-on-month.  Year-on-year the household domestic and personal hygiene products index increased by R24,76 (2,5%) bringing the total average cost of basic household domestic and personal hygiene products to R1 023,81 in October 2024 (See page 5 of October 2024, Household Affordability Index). 

The cost of basic hygiene products is high.  These products are part of the monthly groceries, and compete in the household purse with food.  These products are essential for good health and hygiene; and dignity.