Cover of an e-paper by the Heinrich Böll Foundation and Third World Network. Title: "Climate Justice and Equitable Futures." Background: illuminated Earth at night.
E-Paper

Climate Justice and Equitable Futures

What Is Missing in IPCC AR6 Scenarios and How to Go Beyond
For free (plus shipping costs)

This policy brief unpacks how and why the scenarios and models of the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC project climate action pathways that lead to unacceptable futures. These pathways restrict well-being for the majority of the world’s population and lead to a world with perpetual global inequalities in income, consumption, and energy use, while increasing the number of people exposed to the risk of hunger and endangering food security. The paper also demonstrates the possibility of alternate perspectives and outlines what must change in the preparation of the Seventh Assessment Report of the IPCC in order to foreground equitable futures that ensure climate justice and the well-being of all.

Product details
Date of Publication
February 2025
Publisher
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung in cooperation with Third World Network
Number of Pages
31, with maps and graphs
Licence
Language of publication
English
Table of contents

Abbreviations 

Abstract 

«Global modelled pathways» in the IPCC's AR6 

Projecting Inequitable Futures 

Why do scenarios project unequal futures? 

  • GDP and Consumption of Goods and Services 
  • Primary Energy Consumption 
  • Fossil Fuel Consumption 
  • Carbon Sequestration from Land Use and Carbon Capture and Storage 
  • Food Security and the Risk of Hunger, and the Sustainable Development Goals 
  • Near-term Reductions in CO2 Emissions 
  • Sharing the Remaining Carbon Budget 

Pervasive inequalities in the IAMs and scenario frameworks 

Are the IPCC scenarios representative? 

Are scenarios that ensure both equity and climate compatibility possible?

  • Equitable distribution of the mitigation burden 
  • A sustainable future for all 

The way forward for AR7 

References 

The authors