Zimbabwe – Withered Hopes for Change

People queuing to vote. Image by Sokwanele (Creative Commons)

By the time the official results of the July 31 election were announced by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) chairperson Justice Rita Makarau, many in Harare and other urban centers already knew that ZANU PF candidate President Robert Mugabe had once again outwitted his political foes to emerge victorious.

Thanks to Zimbabwe’s booming social media and a clause of the electoral law that demands the posting of electoral results outside the polling booths, the results of the election were already known on the morning of August 1 and news of ZANU PF’s ‘landslide’ victory plunged opposition supporters into despair.

They had hoped that the election would deliver much needed change and had pinned their hopes on Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai and his party to pull the country out of decades of poverty. The participation of the MDC in the inclusive government brought a modicum of economic stability and many people credited it to the introduction of the multi-currency in particular the United States Dollar. The hope was that an MDC government would consolidate and build on this stability.

With eight in ten of adult Zimbabweans without formal employment and the economy not generating new jobs, thanks to an absence of domestic and foreign investments, many Zimbabweans went to the polls hoping for change.

But a combination of shrewd manipulation by Mugabe and sheer naivety on the part of Tsvangirai and his party by agreeing to go to elections without access to the voters roll, failing to work as a team within their party and policy discord, among other reasons, saw ZANU PF grabbing a two-thirds majority in parliament and Mugabe commanding 61% of the vote.

Undoubtedly the MDC were the biggest losers, seeing their representation falling from 100 parliamentary seats in 2008 to a paltry 49 seats this time around.

Presidential election results and percentages according to ZEC[1]:

Robert Mugabe              2 110 434                        61,09%

Morgan Tsvangirai         1 172 349 votes              33,94%

Welshman Ncube           92 637 votes                    2,68%

Dumiso Dabengwa         25 416 votes                    0,74%

Kisinoti Mukwazhe           9 931 votes                    0,29%      

Sham elections or “free and fair”?

Speaking at a press conference a day after the election, Tsvangirai and his party rubbished the election as ‘null and void’ citing several irregularities that he claimed were a violation of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Principles and Guidelines on the conduct of democratic elections.

A shambolic voters roll, a partisan public media, widespread disenfranchisement of voters and ballot stuffing were some of the anomalies that the MDC raised in a constitutional court application which they filed a week after July 31, seeking to overturn the results of the election. In the court documents the MDC also cited the militarisation of the electoral process which saw serving soldiers being deployed to campaign for ZANU PF in rural communities in provinces like Mashonaland East and Manicaland, lack of transparency in the printing of ballots, double-voting though the Special Vote (this was the early voting process of soldiers and police who would not be able to vote on the election date as they would be on duty) and manipulation of the postal voting system.

A month before the elections the respected Harare-based research organisation Research Advocacy Unit (RAU) in a report titled “Key statistics report from the June 2013 voters roll” found that the country’s voters’ roll contained a million people who are either dead or have left the country, 116 000 people over the age of 100, and 78 constituencies with more registered voters than adult residents.[2] The MDC using the data provided by RAU in various media reports alleged that the voters’ roll was fiddled to give ZANU PF an unfair advantage and the party fingered an Israeli firm, Nikuv International Projects for having worked with the Registrar General, Tobaiwa Mudede to manipulate the roll and rig the elections in ZANU PF’s favour. The Israeli firm claims on its website to deal with voters’ rolls and elections, among other things. The MDC attached a dossier accompanying the court application in which it made shocking claims that  Nikuv International Project was paid US$10 million to manipulate the voters’ roll. The party claimed to have bank statements showing that between February 4 and July 30 2013 the Registrar General made 50 payments averaging US$200 000 through a FBC Bank, a Zimbabwean bank with ZANU PF links.

Predictably Mugabe has rubbished the MDC’s claims. Speaking at celebrations to commemorate national heroes of the liberation struggle on August 11, he told Tsvangirai and his MDC that they can “go hang”, calling them “dogs of imperialists”. Although ZANU PF has claimed an “emphatic victory” against “imperialism”, the results of the elections have not generated a national mood of celebrations. By the time the official results were announced most people were already going about their personal business.

On August 20, the constitutional court dismissed the MDC application to nullify the result of the elections and the chief Justice Godfrey Chidyausiku described the election as free, fair and credible in addition declaring Mugabe legitimate winner of the poll. The court decision came despite Tsvangirai’s attempts to have the case withdrawn on August 16 citing the unwillingness by the Electoral Commission to release the voting material which he needed to support his case. The dismissal of Tsvangirai’s court application with costs immediately saw the inauguration of Mugabe on August 22, at the national sports stadium in Harare.

Regional and international reactions

Despite the allegations of irregularities, the regional body SADC and Africa Union (AU) gave the elections thumbs up as they have commented Zimbabweans for voting peacefully. However, the two bodies have not categorically declared the elections credible.

Although South African President Jacob Zuma, SADC’s mediator to the negotiations in Harare intimated that SADC will accept the election, there was an initial dissatisfaction by SADC member state Botswana. The government of Botswana called for an audit of the elections arguing that it did not live up to SADC regulations on elections. However, during a SADC summit held in Malawi in August, the Botswana government changed its statement and declared the elections free and fair, citing that it had been misled by some civil society organisations and the MDC. The appointment of Mugabe as SADC vice chairperson on August 17 has clearly shown that SADC is no longer concerned about the election irregularities.

The European Union, United States, Britain and Australia according to media reports however criticised the electoral process as “seriously flawed” and declared that its outcome cannot have legitimacy deriving from the will of the people. Unconfirmed reports suggested that US was going to closely monitor the situation in Zimbabwe before it removes targeted sanctions on certain individuals, though the past two years some American business moguls for instance Higginbottom and his partners showed interests in working with ZANU PF as they feared losing out business opportunities to Russians and Chinese.

Flawed reforms

While some observers of Zimbabwean elections sympathise with the MDC for being outfoxed by Mugabe and ZANU PF, for example Botswana SADC observers and the SADC Council of Non-Governmental Organisations, questions have been raised about the opposition’s own internal capacities and strategy.

The MDC failed to keep its eye on the ball as it maneuvered a quarrelsome inclusive government in which it played junior partner to ZANU PF. The party raised key issues of reform that it pursued when the Government of National Unity (GNU) was consummated but by the time elections were held the party had dropped most of them and were even singing praises of the electoral commission, which they had previously argued, needed to be reconstituted.

Key reforms would have included changes to the security sector, the media and electoral process - all three of which have propped Mugabe in past elections. Nonetheless, the MDC decided to go  ahead and to take part in elections in an environment which favored ZANU PF.

A SADC summit held in Mozambique in May directed that amendments to the Electoral Act which had been made into law by Mugabe using the Presidential Powers (Temporal Measures) Act be brought to parliament for debate and adoption. It also called for the appointment of an Inter-Ministerial Committee to deal with implementation of agreed issues on media reform, monitoring of hate speech in all media and that security forces publicly restate their commitment to the rule of law and adherence to the constitution.

There were supposed to be amendments to media laws - that is the Public Order and Security Act (Posa), Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act (Aippa), the Broadcasting Act and section 121 of the Criminal Procedure and Evidence Act before the elections. Again, most of these recommendations of the summit were never carried out.

The MDCs also got caught up in the trappings of power, concentrating on self-aggrandisement as some of the leaders began conducting shady deals with ZANU PF while ensuring they acquire top-of-the-range vehicles as well as big houses and stands in leafy suburbs. In addition, infighting in the MDC made them lose focus on preparing for the elections: the candidate selection process was marred by irregularities, the leadership failed to value technical input and the party was unable  to establish proper functioning structures.

The battle for legitimacy

ZANU PF was better prepared for the elections, although it used dirty tactics to outfox the MDC. Unlike in previous elections where it used violence to win elections, this time around ZANU PF “harvested” from the fear of 2008 as it sought to regain legitimacy. Gone were the torture camps of 2008, the militia groups that terrorised villagers and the brazen torture of opponents. Instead the party focused on swaying voters from day one of the inclusive government as they parceled out land to housing cooperatives and promised livelihood improvement through community share ownership schemes under its indigenisation drive.

In Harare for example, ZANU PF targeted wrestling constituencies from the MDC,  Harare North constituency being one of them. They established housing cooperatives like Imba Mukadzi, Chimurenga, Kukura, Kubatana Kwakanaka and Greater Harare Women's Housing Project.  They captured the constituency by giving land to landless people, who would then be required to get ZANU PF membership cards and threatened to be removed from the land in the event of an MDC win.

Jabulani Sibanda, a war veteran, spent an entire year in Masvingo “educating” villagers. ZANU PF swept all the parliamentary seats in the province.  In Mbare, a populous poor suburb ZANU PF took control of the allocation of market stalls for vendors and dished them in return for political support. The seat was wrestled from the MDC.

The election result is likely to ignite debate on Tsvangirai’s leadership of the MDC. Barely a week after the controversial election there are whispers of leadership change in the party. Tsvangirai has been at the helm of the labour backed party since its formation 14 years ago and some of his lieutenants are calling for him to step aside and make way for a new leader.

A number of issues resulted in Tsvangirai losing credibility which included his inconsistency in making valuable decisions especially as fighting for reforms was concerned. One popular example is when he came out publicly saying there was nothing wrong with the secretariat of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, which however had been a contentious issue after the creation of the inclusive government and which the MDC wanted reformed before an election.

By accepting a US$3 million house built for him by government, Tsvangirai also lost some credibility as the poor at grass roots level and the workers (on whose support the MDC was formed on) could no longer associate themselves with him. At one point Tsvangirai and some of the MDC ministers and member of parliaments were accused of having joined ZANU PF gravy train of corruption and greed. In addition, his alleged sex scandals in 2012 also made him unpopular with certain groups of people, as several women came out in the public claiming to have had unprotected sex with the MDC leader.

Members of his inner circle are however adamant that Tsvangirai should stay as they argue that the electoral loss was a result of malpractices that had nothing to do with his leadership skills.

Whatever happens, existing fissures in his party are likely to widen. The party’s congress is only in 2016 and Tsvangirai is likely to be challenged then for the leadership if he does not step down voluntarily. Tendai Biti, the current Secretary General of the party is seen as a leading contender of the top job. Biti, who was the Finance Minister during the inclusive government, was popular for being consistent with the fight for reforms before an election. He also was popular for exposing the lack of transparency in the diamond industry by revealing that Treasury was not getting much from the diamond companies.

What now for Zimbabweans?

ZANU PF now having the majority seats in parliament, many pro-democracy actors who fought hard for a new constitution that guarantees civil liberties fear that Mugabe will claw back some clauses to regain his authoritarian grip on Zimbabwe.

There are also concerns about the future of Zimbabwe’s economy, which had shown some semblance of recovery under the inclusive government. Industry watchers fear that the economy could quickly slide into regression if ZANU PF abandons sound macroeconomic management. Many Zimbabweans fear that ZANU PF will pursue the nationalisation of businesses resulting from the current indigenisation policy, and that this will kill investment. Investors certainly fear a stronger ZANU PF accelerating its indigenisation programme by targeting foreign banks, that it accuses of refusing to lend money to small businesses and black farmers who benefitted in the controversial land reforms. After he was elected Mugabe already threatened foreign owned companies in Zimbabwe that if they were not willing to cooperate with the country’s indigenization policy, they would be chased out of the country.

There are also fears that ZANU PF will re-introduce the Zimbabwean dollar, a move that would completely erode business confidence. This prompted the Reserve Bank Governor of Zimbabwe Gideon Gono to issue a statement in which he dismissed the rumours of the return of the Zimbabwe dollar adding that when the time comes they would be “very cautious and gradual” in re-introducing it.

Fears also abound that a ZANU PF government will be less transparent and accountable particularly in the diamond-mining sector. Even with the MDC controlling treasury during the period of the GNU, mines minister Obert Mpofu failed to account for diamond revenues. With ZANU PF in charge of Treasury it is likely that even less funds arrive in the state’s coffers.

Political analysts however say that ZANU PF does not want to see the collapse of Zimbabwe as their defeat at the 2008 elections taught them a lesson on how the collapse of the economy could make them so unpopular and cost them at election time. The ZANU PF majority however is likely to aid the former revolutionary party to tighten its grip on the control of parastatals and state institutions and commissions which are believed to have played a vital role in securing the party’s outright “victory”. The presence of ex-security officials in government institutions is likely going to increase as ZANU PF will be trying by all means to consolidate its grip on the state institutions. It is mainly about loyalty and ZANU PF wants total control of these institutions mindful of the fact that there was an inclusive government which had diluted most state institution.

With Mugabe at 89 this year, speculation is that he will not serve his full five year term and very soon succession issues will be topical in ZANU PF resulting in a lot of infighting. Names of who will succeed Mugabe have been thrown around with the most popular being Vice President Joice Mujuru and Defence Minister Emmerson Mnangangwa. There is renewed pressure in the party for the succession issue to be resolved. Some leaders want this sorted during the annual conference at the end of the year, since it can be transformed into a mini-congress, while others want the party to wait until the scheduled congress next year.

Zimbabwe’s future is hanging in the balance with the European Union and United States waiting on the sidelines to see the type of cabinet Mugabe will unveil, his succession plans and more importantly the economic policies which he will pursue. In the final analysis, the primary challenges for ZANU PF relate to two matters, firstly, its succession politics which is what the attendant factional politics will feed on and secondly it shall face the monumental task of performance legitimacy as a singular party in government.

Wongai Zhangazha is a Zimbabwean journalist based in Harare.